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80k for a home bonus of 13 - is it worth it?
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Steve (Asteria) - Friday 12-29-06 6:44
A couple of months ago Mark Creasey commented that 3 of the 4 home teams paid for a home bonus and failed to win their AP Cup game. I e-mailed Al saying, "I never pay for a home bonus in MSWL or SESL because I don't think it's worth it." I then mentioned the old Olmec code and gave some figures and wondered if something was worth looking at. Al sent me the relevant code.

What does Home Bonus do? Simply adds the figure to your DEF and OFF. The Home team gets a HB of 8 anyway for free. It might not seem like much but I've been working through some figures using Excel and, as an example, if two identical teams had GP=42.6, DEF=118.31, OFF=160.96 without the HB then the home team has an 8.58% chance of a shot and the away team 7.05%. This is a 22% advantage to the home team as is pretty typical. With a HB of 13 it becomes 9.09% to 6.65% or 37% advantage.

So Home Bonus definitely makes a difference as it will mean around 8 shots to the home team and 6.5 to the away and this changes to 8.5 to 6 with the extra 80k paid (give or take and over a lot of games).

Is it worth 80k for half a shot? And with a HB of 10 you'd get maybe an extra shot every 5 games on average.

With the old system it probably was worth it as this rounded percentages down to the next whole number: 8.58% became 8% and a number from 1 to 100 was rolled. It would take a HB of 13 to get this to 9%. However the away sides chance would be 7% and reduce to 6% with a HB of 9. A HB of 10 would perhaps affect 1 match in 10 but 10k is a small price to pay.

With the new system 1 to 10000 is rolled so there's no big jump in chances. I'm not sure a HB of 10 is worth it now and I don't think I'd pay 80k for one extra shot (except maybe in a must win game).

A made up example:

		HB	TeamA Increase	TeamB Decrease	H/A
Team A		8	9.37%	0.0%	8.82%	0.0%	106%
42.60		9	9.47%	1.1%	8.72%	1.1%	109%
126.31		10	9.58%	2.2%	8.61%	2.4%	111%
168.96		11	9.68%	3.3%	8.51%	3.5%	114%
		12	9.79%	4.5%	8.42%	4.5%	116%
9.37%		13	9.90%	5.7%	8.32%	5.7%	119%
							
							
		HB	TeamB Increase	TeamA Decrease	H/A
Team B		8	10.59%	0.0%	7.74%	0.0%	137%
35.00		9	10.70%	1.0%	7.65%	1.2%	140%
118.31		10	10.81%	2.1%	7.56%	2.3%	143%
180.00		11	10.92%	3.1%	7.47%	3.5%	146%
		12	11.03%	4.2%	7.39%	4.5%	149%
8.82%		13	11.14%	5.2%	7.30%	5.7%	153%
In the above tables the figures on the left are GP, DEF and OFF for both teams with HB of 8 already added to team A. The upper table is with Team A at home, the lower with Team B with the home bonus figured in. The increase and decrease percentages are typical as HB is increased. If a team started with a low chance of a shot then these increase/decrease more (because adding 5 to an OFF of 70 makes more difference than to adding 5 to an OFF of 170) but 110% of 3 chances is only 3.3 chances. With high OFF teams the increase/decrease percentages might be smaller but can mean one more shot for you and one less for him with a HB of 13.
Mark (Scotland) - Friday 12-29-06 16:35
I never pay for it, so I don't think its worth it, no.

Home bonus used to be set at 3 with option to pay for upto 8. I nagged Al for a while to increase that as 'home' teams clearly DO have an advantage in real life.

A realistic level would be 15 > 20, but as this is a game, I know that will appear too severe.
An interesting topic though Steve.

Dave (British Bull-Dogs) - Friday 12-29-06 17:17
Thanks Steve I've been wasting money on home bonuses then. One things for sure ! Not any more! Cheers & Happy New Year
Steve (Asteria) - Friday 12-29-06 19:12
I don't know if Al could run a query to see how many games have been home wins compared to away wins but I can tell you is that in English Football over the past 14 years the ratio of home wins to away wins is 1.71. That's based on dropping the highest and lowest 2 ratios from each division. For each division the ratios are:

Premiership 1.77
Championship 1.73
League One 1.70
League Two 1.66

Very approximately home wins make up 45% with away wins and draws splitting the rest.

Stats taken from http://stats.football.co.uk/

I'm not saying that MSWL should have the same ratio, but I suspect that a HB of 20 would be too high. It would mean something like an 8 to 5 shot ratio for equal teams, and I think that could lead to more than a 2:1 ratio.

Allan (Memphis) - Saturday 12-30-06 14:36
Just a follow-up on some of the ratio questions (here's a table, we'll see how it shows up...)

              S14    S15   S16   All-Time
Home Wins     230    242    72       3093 
Home Draws    104     90    38       1475
Home Losses   186    188    62       2140

Ratio        1.24   1.29  1.16       1.45 

So....yeah it does look like we're on a trend to less of a home-field advantage...perhaps something
to review further? Mr. S
Phil (Missouri) - Saturday 12-30-06 16:55
MLB probably accounts for a lot of those home losses.
Rob (Boston) - Thursday 01-04-07 11:57
BOS is skewing these results WAY down this season as we have yet to record a victory in S16...
Phil (Missouri) - Thursday 01-04-07 21:26
Rob,

What say you and I start a Division I-AA for MSWL? :-)

Phil
Kevin (Kirksville) - Friday 01-05-07 9:40
Hey Steve,
What would the tables look like if instead of a straight +8-13 to DEF and OFF the program added +8%-13% to each area? Would that skew things way too much if a team had a really good offense? I'm thinking of a top club who can generate over 200 OFF without the bonus, and that being too much of a variable should they decide to press and end up getting an extra 30 OFF area points on top of their 200+ due to home bonus values. If it is too lopsided, try 5%-10% instead if you have the time/inclination.
Steve (Asteria) - Friday 01-05-07 19:27
It's going to be kinda obvious but +5% to +10% benefits the high DEF/OFF sides more than +8 to +13 does.

If you have DEF or OFF at 160 without HB then +5% = +8 and it gets better as you get higher.

If you have DEF/OFF at around 130 then you need to get to +10% to catch up to +13.

And for the weaker teams then they would prefer the current system. What it might do though is persuade managers to spend more on home bonus.

The only problem I have with home bonus is that it doubles in price for each step from 9 to 13, and at 13 it's more than the average 2nd division gate. So down here it is a biggish bonus but too expensive. Up there it's more affordable but has less effect. If it was changed to +5% to +10% then it would help you lot up there more and so more money might go out the league. But down here in the better division we'd still probably not use it as much although it still has more effect in the ratios.

I've not included any figures but in the AK vs MCR game, 5% was close to +8 and increasing HB helped the former more than the latter, but not by a deal. In the BOA vs SCO game both teams had relatively weak DEF and so going to 5% helped SCO but the high OFF meant it helped BOA more.

5% to 10% was certainly more balanced than 8% to 13%

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