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Shot chance
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Steve (Asteria) - Saturday 11-03-07 5:15
I've been taking stats on the number of chances I think I team should get and comparing them to the actual shots given. Offside counts as a chance. The maths isn't perfect in that a change of tactics after a goal can make things look wrong, usually a team getting more than they should.

Two examples:

1. AK vs NYT in match 2. I changed players from a to p after going a goal up and later after going 3-0 up the shot chance is halved but in the next minute scored another goal, where it is halved again. This skews the stats a little to make it look I got got more shots than I deserved. Scoring with every shot makes a difference as well - no doubt if the score had still been 1-0 then I would have stayed at 12% and had a lot more shots.

2. ZAR vs NYT in match 4. Jay scored after 3 minutes and stalled. If he'd played O all 90 minutes then NYT should have gotten 0.9 shots. With stalling so early it was down to 0.1 shots, but he only stalled because he scored.

So are the strong teams getting penalised? I've only done 4 games for my group so far and 3 games for the others, and so far the highest actual/stats ratio is NYT with 1.9 - they've always had more chances than the stats say they should. The second highest is the other very weak team in the group, AK, at 1.77

In the 4 games so far it's 9 actual to 5.6 stats, 6 to 3.8 (the NYT game), 11 to 7.1 and an embarrassing 10 to 3.9

Overall, however, it's 362 chances over the stats saying it should be 352.2

I'll put the final totals here when all the AP group games have finished but for now I'm out to do some more gardening.

One question for the real statisticians out there - if there's a 5% chance of a shot, which would give 4.5 chances, are there more or less chances of getting fewer than 4.5 shots? In other words of say you got 4.5 shots 10 times over 100 games, would you get (as an exapmple of what I mean) 4.2 shots 80 times and 6.9 shots 10 times (which totals 450 shots in 100 games). Or would it be equal either side of 4.5? Just curious as there's more chance of rolling above 5 than below it on a d100.

Willy (Montevideo) - Saturday 11-03-07 20:36
Can the gurus of olmec math check the last MT-MLB match? It should be interesting at least from our point of view, MLB outshot MT 15-2 playing O...
Steve (Asteria) - Sunday 11-04-07 3:48
I make it MLB 8.6 shots, MT 6.4 shots. MLB have been one of the luckier ones as well.

NYT once again got more than the stats would say 5 over 3.6, and for the first time we got less 5 compared to 8.7

I'd love to know if Jay would have pressed all game if behind - not accounting for substitutions we would have 17 shots to their 6.

If anyone wants the spreadsheet I use to work this out then e-mail me.

Phil (Missouri) - Monday 11-05-07 14:15
I have to admit that MLB has been the benefactor of good fortune as of late, but I also feel like we were on the short end of the stick for some time over the course of the past several seasons. I hope that we're not suggesting long-term changes based on short term statistics.....
Steve (Asteria) - Monday 11-05-07 16:30
I certainly don't want to see any changes. We all get bad luck from time to time and it's normally that that we remember.
Steve (Asteria) - Sunday 01-27-08 8:45
I've finally finished off the AP group games.

Actual chances - 710
Spreadsheet says - 696

Teams with the highest Actual/Spreadsheet ratio
and their Actual less Spreadsheet amount

NYT   1.79    8.8
MLB 1.37 14.0
SCO 1.34 15.0
AK 1.30 10.7
Scotland were the only team to get 20 chances in a game and they managed it twice.

The unluckiest

BOS   0.71  -7.9
CI    0.72  -8.6
LPT   0.73  -1.1 (but ony 3 actual shots anyway)
MT    0.75  -7.5
KIN had -6.2 but at 0.88 ratio

Two teams got exactly the "correct" number, BB with 12 and BOA with 35.

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